Why are parts of the BC Real Estate Market still fragile - some clues in the latest CLI report from BCREA ?

Hi All,

I am constantly trying to get to the bottom of why consumer confidence in the Kelowna and Central Okanagan Real Estate market is the way it is, at the moment.

Having read the latest report on the Commercial Leading Indicator from BCREA today, it is gives some useful clues to help answer to this question!

Whilst the British Columbia Economy is less fragile than some areas, there is clearly no room for complacency, and with employment rates not recovery as well as we would have hoped, it looks we' need to tread a careful road ahead.

I have attached the details of the full report below.

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) edged down 0.4 points to 108.1 in the second quarter of 2011.

After posting a strong performance in 2010, the index has trended lower since the beginning of the year.
The CLI peaked at a level of 115.5 in the second quarter of 2007 before the onset of the financial crisis pushed it to a low of 97.7 in the first half of 2009.

The downward pressure in the CLI over the past two quarters is mostly a product of weak growth in both retail sales and employment. In addition, provincial manufacturing sales have deteriorated alongside the global economy.

To read more -:

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/CLIReport.pdf


Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

CMHC Predicts Housing Starts will be up in Kelowna during 2012.

Clipped from www.castanet.net

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation expects new home construction to increase 30% in 2012.

CMHC forecasts new home starts in Kelowna to reach 1325, compared to 1025 in 2011.

Paul Fabri, Senior Market Analyst for CMHC in Kelowna, says it’s expected to be a very modest increase in housing starts for 2012. Read more at www.castanet.net

 

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The Latest Canadian Housing Trend and Affordability Report from RBC August 2011

Hi All,

RBC Economic's Department has just released its second quarter update for housing affordability in Canada.

It is interesting to note that in general housing affordability is close to historical norms, but in BC figures continue to be skewed by Vancouver.

Here are the details of the report below.

Affordability deteriorated in the second quarter 


Continued gains in home prices and a slight increase in mortgage rates hurt housing affordability in Canada in the second quarter of this year although not enough to cause undue strain in the majority markets across the country. By and large, the share of household budget taken up by the costs of owning a home at current market values remains close to historical norm; however, extremely poor and rapidly eroding affordability in the Vancouver-area market is somewhat skewing the national picture.

To read the full report please go to -: http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf

Kind regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Six Tips to Selling your Home Faster

Hi Everyone,



In times when it is a 'Buyers Market' in Real Estate, it is important to find ways to give your property the edge over the competition.



Here are some useful tips for you to consider.



Kind Regards



Trish Cenci



Tel 250 864 1707.

See this Amp at http://amplify.com/u/a1bhvj

View the latest Podcast on BC Real Estate from Cameron Muir - BCREA August 2011

Hi All,

View the latest update from Cameron Muir, Chief Economist for BCREA for August 2011, in which he also explains seasonal adjustments in the British Columbia Real Estate Market.

http://youtu.be/cKfZxcirqwg

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

First Time Buyers - Thinking of Buying a Home and Affordability is the Problem? Ever thought about Buying with Friends?

Hi All,



I read this interesting article, today, from the U.K. about an innovative way of 'getting around' affordability issues with bank's tightening their lending criteria and house prices rising.



Read on for some useful points to consider.



Kind Regards



Trish Cenci

Coldwell Banker Horizon Realty

Tel 250 864 1707

See this Amp at http://amplify.com/u/a1b5yd

Who is Buying Homes in the Okanagan - Shuswap? OMREB Report August 2011

Kelowna, BC

Ever wonder where home buyers come from?

Since September 2010, the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board (OMREB) has been collecting information from our members with regards to where our buyers are coming from – both geographically and demographically.

The purpose of collecting this data is to add another element to our market knowledge and a better understanding of current trends.The longer record, the more insight the Board will have.

Results of OMREB’s new Board - wide monthly Buyers Survey indicate that serious buyers are taking advantage of the current market and leveraging their positive purchasing power while it lasts. Buyer profiles gathered through each monthly survey include property type, family dynamic, financing, and areas moving from and to.

On average during the past 11 months (September 2010 through July 2011), home buyers have been

coming from: within the OMREB Board area (57.63%); Alberta (13.93%); Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island (12.5%); other areas of BC (7.75%); Saskatchewan/Manitoba (3.37%); Eastern Canada/Maritimes (2.79%); and outside Canada (2.04%).

During this period, move‐up buyers accounted for 23.87% of the purchasers while first - time buyers comprised 23.87%.

Real estate markets can be driven by local demand, demand stemming from outside the region or province, by international sources, or by a combination of all three.

Knowing how many homes are sold and at what price is an important part of the picture. However, understanding who your buyers are and where they come from can reveal not only market dynamics but also identify which factors actually drive local demand.

For example, a change in entry level buyer activity can have a ripple effect throughout the entire market as many move-up buyers rely on first‐time buyers to purchase their existing homes. First‐time buyers area a driving factor and they stimulate the chain of ownership.

Low interest rates and attractive pricing alone don’t necessarily mean increased sales activity. Many

additional factors affect consumer confidence, including local employment opportunities and the overall economic environment. Real estate markets can also react differently depending on the influence of various buyer segments.

Housing markets in Vancouver, for example, are being bolstered by off‐shore buyers while the Alberta market is closely linked to natural resource prices and their job market. Since a sizable proportion of local sales come from buyers that originate outside our region, 40% being non‐local, we need to keep an eye on Alberta and the Lower Mainland. Our monthly Buyers Survey helps to do just that.So if you were curious as to what is moving our local real estate market, this is a bit of insight.

OMREB is comprised of 1,155 member REALTORS® and 86 real estate offices in the Southern Interior of BC, and the Board area covers the Central Okanagan, North Okanagan and Shuswap – from Peachland to Revelstoke.

July 2011 Buyers Survey Results.

The results of OMREB's July 2011 Buyers Survey are in! A total of 152 respondents participated in this survey – representing 43% of the 352 OMREB sales representatives who acted as Buyers Agents and 28% of the 542 deals closed on behalf of Buyers in July.
 

JULY SURVEY SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS

Property Type:

26.0% of purchases were by Move-Up Buyers
14.0% by First Time Buyers
11.5% moving from Single Family Home to Strata Unit
9.3% buying Revenue/Investment Property
4.7% moving from Strata property to Single Family Home
4.7% Recreation Property Buyers
4.0% moving into Retirement Home/Seniors Community

To read the full survey results, please click on the attached link -:

http://www.omreb.com/matrix/documents/July%202011%20Buyers%20Survey%20Results.pdf

The point of interest this month is that we can see a swing from first time buyers to move up buyers. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in the coming months.

Certainly the news of lower fixed interest rates and the predictions of the Bank of Canada delaying their interest rate rise will help first time buyers.

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Spotlight on Quail Ridge Kelowna Condos

I am writing this article today to help, those of you who are considering purchasing a condo, to familiarise you with the complexes in the Quail Ridge area, of Kelowna.

There are three condo complexes in the Quail Ridge area – the Borgata Lodge, The Pointe at Quail and Pinnacle Pointe.

With their close proximity to the two Quail Ridge Championship Golf Courses, UBCO, Kelowna International Airport, and mid way between Big White and Silver Star Ski Hills this area has traditionally been very popular with local residents, recreational real estate owners and investors.

Borgata Lodge – 3185 Via Centrale.

The Borgata Lodge was built in 1994 and is a 3 storey, 44 unit complex built of timber frame construction.

Nearly all the units are one bedroom, with one two bedroom unit, ranging from 635 – 1044 square feet.

There is a secured front entry and secure parking, with some parking available on the road nearby.

This complex has no amenities and there is a no pet policy.

Rentals are allowed in the building with no restrictions.

It is the closest building to the Quail Ridge Championship Golf Course, which is a two minute walk away.

Within the ground floor of the complex there are various businesses, which include a Spa and our Real Estate Office.

Heating and Cooling – Wall mounted heating and cooling units.

The Pointe at Quail – 3168 and 3178 Via Centrale.

This property was built in 2004 and is a four storey, 118 unit complex built of timber frame construction, built in two parts, by Pointe of View Developments.

There are a variety of one bedroom, two bedroom and two bedroom and den floor plans, ranging from 741 to 1585 square feet.

The property has a secure front entry; secure parking with additional street parking (subject to availability) and security cameras are used in the building.

The complex has a pool and hot tub which is generally open between May and September.

There is also a pet policy, with one cat or one dog allowed.

Rentals are allowed, however the Tenancy has to be minimum monthly, with no short term rentals allowed.
This building is situated directly by the 18^th Fairway of the Quail Ridge Championship Golf Course, and the north facing units usually have a golf course view.

The Strata Fees for this building do include heat costs. Some units do have gas fireplaces.

Heating and Cooling -  Central Air Conditioning and Forced Air.

Pinnacle Pointe – 1873 and 1875 Country Club Drive.

This property was built in 2008 and is a four storey, 165 unit complex, built of timber frame construction, again built in two parts, by Pointe of View Developments.

There are a variety of one bedroom, one bedroom and den, two bedroom and two bedroom and den units, ranging from 624 to 1334 square feet.

The property has secure front entry, secure parking and additional exterior parking which was assigned as an upgrade to certain units, and there is also road parking ( subject to availability). This building also has security cameras and a front door fob system.

The complex has a pool, hot tub and exercise room.

Rentals are allowed – both short and long term, and there is a one cat or one dog pet policy.

This building is situated on the hillside above the Borgata Lodge and is approximately a five minute walk from the Golf Club House.

Strata fees do not include heat and there is only electricity in the building.

Heating and Cooling  - Central Air Forced Air.


Video of the Quail Ridge Golf Course Community.


If you would like to see more of the Quail Ridge area please view my video below -:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0ZswRB5sv4


Information about Buying a Condo in BC.


For more information on buying a Condo in BC, please view my article at -:


http://trishcenci.blogspot.com/2011/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-buying.html

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

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Only more immigrants can save Canada's Economy ?

Hi All,



Having emigrated to Canada myself, I am always interested to hear what the Government has to say on this subject.



It was a very long process when I moved, the worst part being you never knew when you were going to hear.



I am all for Provincial Immigrant Nominee Programs, as each Province can decide what types of skills they need and the process seems to work a lot quicker.



Kind Regards



Trish Cenci



Tel 250 864 1707

See this Amp at http://amplify.com/u/a1a6tz

Kelowna Real Estate Update August 2011

The sun finally came out as we approached the end of July. I have lived here for 6 years now, and I can’t remember the hills still being green at this time of year before!

With the sunshine came our ‘out of town’ visitors who are both welcomed by the Tourist Trade, and the Real Estate Market.

It has certainly felt busier in areas such as Sunset Drive and in Quail Ridge, as Investors and Buyers have been pleasantly surprised with the prices they are seeing.

Central Okanagan Statistics for July 2011

Date	Total	S/F	Strata	Lot	Manuf
Jul-11	329	149	130	27	23
Jun-11	331	200	90	20	21
May-11	328	184	119	13	12
Apr-11	285	161	89	12	23
Jul-10	225	122	78	10	15

Figures are as at close of business July 31st, 2011 and may be subject to minor change

As you can see Strata sales have been the big success this month, which I believe will reflect the influence of investors in the market, when we see the Buyers Survey Results later in the month.

Against last year at this time the figures look miraculous, with an overall increase of 46%! I am not cheering too hard however, as these figures are certainly not reflecting in increased pricing for Sellers, as it remains a Buyer’s market.

My Forecast for the coming months.

I believe that August will continue to be busy for the condo market, and in the areas of the City that have more ‘seasonal selling’.

In my Open Houses I have been seeing visitors from Saskatchewan, Alberta and Vancouver, and the economy and general weak consumer confidence does not seem to be affecting their buying habits.

There is a concern that prices my fall further, and there are a number of storm clouds on the horizon – the U.S. Debt Crisis, a highly valued Canadian Dollar, high gas prices and rising interest rates. Any one or all of these factors could have a negative effect on the Canadian economy, jobs and consumer confidence.

On the positive side, industries such as oil and timber are doing well, which have a strong influence on the economies of BC and Alberta.

In Kelowna, I continue to believe that pricing will remain fairly flat, providing we don’t see a large increase in inventory, which would further skew demand and supply, which already favours Buyers.

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci