BCREA Housing Market Update & Mortgage Rate Forecast - December 2011

Hi All,

Here is the latest Market Update from the BC Real Estate Association and their Mortgage Forecast for 2012.

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Report on Canada's Housing Boom - one of the longest in the Western World.

Hi All,

An interesting report on Housing Markets around the World.

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707.

Immigrants to Canada find it difficult to get skilled jobs without 'Canadian Experience'.

Hi All,

I read this really good article today, on the problems facing new immigrants to Canada.

Having immigrated here myself,from the U.K., I am well aware of these problems, and I know of several people who faced this very challenge.

The Canadian Government is well aware of this, but I really hope this latest report encourages them to do more!

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Kelowna Real Estate Forecast for 2012 - clues in the latest TD Bank Economic forecast?

Hi All,

For those of you who read my blog regularly, you will know that I am always trying to make sense of the economic headlines and relate them to the Kelowna Real Estate market.

I have just been reading the TD Bank's latest quarterly Economic Report. They are predicting that the European Financial crisis, is going to continue to have an effect on the Global Economy and will in turn have an impact on our own economic growth.

Highlights of the TD report 

•  Canadian economic momentum over the second half of 2011 has been better than expected, led by a rebound in exports. Economic growth is projected to be 2.4% for the year as a whole. 
In 2012, an escalation of the European financial crisis and a deepening recession in the region will exert a significant drag on the global economy.  Canada will be negatively impacted through weaker commodity prices, confidence and export growth. Labour markets will also soften as a result. 
Canadian economic activity is expected to improve in late 2012 and into 2013.  Still, high household and government debt, rising interest rates and slowing housing activity will limit the speed of Canadian real GDP growth. 
Overall, since our last forecast in September, TD Economics has shaved 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points off its Canadian growth forecast for 2012 and 2013 respectively. We now expect real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2012 and 2.2% in 2013.  The limited change to the 2012 annual growth reflects the momentum heading into next year. 

So how does that affect Kelowna Real Estate?
Slow economic growth in B.C. and low employment gains, particularly in full-time employment, in the Okanagan Valley, will impact consumer confidence.

As we have seen previously, this is bound to have effect in the numbers of people committing to make real estate purchases - particularly in the 'move up', recreational and investment area of the market.

Even though we are continuing to see low interest rates in the forecast, if consumers don't feel confident about their job security and incomes, they will be less likely to be spending.

I therefore continue to offer the view that house prices will remain flat during the first half of next year.

Economic forecasters are predicting things will improve towards the end of next year, and as they do, that is the time we should start to see modest home price rises in this area, providing we don't see a large influx of listings, which will keep us heavily in 'buyers market' territory.

As I said in my report at the beginning of this month, we have some really good things happening in the Valley - the Hospital expansion, growth in UBCO and Kelowna International Airport together with the retail expansion in West Kelowna. So despite all the doom and gloom, we do have reason for some optimism in this area.

With the World Economy being in such a fragile state, however, my predictions are written in sand, not in stone!!

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Kelowna Real Estate - OMREB Buyers Survey Results - December 2011

The results of OMREB's November 2011 Buyers Survey are now posted! A total of 139 respondents participated in this survey – representing 43.4% of the 297 OMREB sales representatives who acted as Buyers Agents and 35.2% of the 395 deals closed on behalf of Buyers in November.


Property Type:

22.1% of purchases were by Move-Up Buyers
22.1% by First Time Buyers
13.2% moving from Single Family Home to Strata Unit
6.6% buying Revenue/Investment Property
5.1% moving from Strata property to Single Family Home
3.7% moving into Retirement Home/Seniors Community
3.7% Recreation Property Buyers

Moving From:

58.7% from Within OMREB Board Area
4.3% from Other Areas in BC
14.5% from Alberta
12.3% from Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island
4.3% from Other Areas in BC
3.6% from Saskatchewan/Manitoba
3.6% from Outside Canada
2.2% from Eastern Canada/Maritimes
0.7% from NWT/Yukon (second month reported)

First Time Buyers and Move- Up Buyers continue to be the main players in the market, as they are still taking advantage of lower prices and lower interest rates.

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Report on BC Real Estate Sales from BCREA December 2011

Dear All,

I was reading the latest Real Estate Report from the BC Real Estate Association today, and thought you would like to see the latest update.

Things are really close to where they were at this time last year.

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Cell 250 864 1707
Home Sales Climb
Vancouver, BC – December 14, 2011.
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential unit sales in the province remained relatively unchanged in November compared to the same month last year. A total of 5,640 units were sold last month compared to 5,647 units in November 2010. The average MLS® residential price was up 1.1 per cent to $529,140 in November compared to the same month last year.

"BC home sales continued to gain ground in November,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “After waning during the first half of the year, consumer demand has steadily increased since the summer months, bringing home sales within seven units of the November 2010 level."

"Low mortgage interest rates remain a key driver in the housing market, helping to maintain affordability and purchasing power,” added Muir.
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 15.5 per cent to $41 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales increased 3.2 per cent to 72,632 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 11.9 per cent to $563,991 over the same period.

Kelowna Real Estate Update December 2011

Hi All,

I can't believe it is December already!

If we look back on the year, it has been a tough year for many parts of the Kelowna Real Estate Market. In reviewing the residential real estate sales, there have been some great deals for Buyers.

The number one question to Real Estate Agents continues to be  'How is the Market' and 'What do you think is going to happen to home prices in Kelowna'?

In my 'quest' to find the answer, I have been looking to a number of different sources, such as CMHC, Stats Canada and the BC Real Estate Association.

Only last week I attended a talk by Paul Farbi, Market Analyst for CMHC, about the Real Estate Market in Kelowna.

As part of his presentation, he talked about the reasons why the investment and second home market has been declining - putting it down to slower economic growth which cooled demand, investors pulling back due to uncertainty in the markets and softening prices, financing became harder and stronger competition from cheaper homes in the U.S.

What is the immediate future for Kelowna Real Estate?

Regionally, we are seeing job numbers beginning to rebound, and economic growth is beginning to recover. We have a number of positives for this area in particular - the growth in UBCO, the expansion projects at Kelowna International Airport and Kelowna General Hospital, Residential Construction is now stronger and Best Buy have just opened their new 34,000 square foot store in Orchard Park Mall.

The Rental Market has also been hit over the last couple of years with vacancy rates, in 2011, being around the 6% mark, whereas it was 3.7% in the previous year. The good news is that rents are now beginning to stabilise, and hopefully this area of the market will continue its recovery.

All in all, the economic and employment growth tend to support housing demand for 2012, so I do agree with the view that prices will remain stable over the coming months with a modest increase later in 2012, as inventory continues to be absorbed.

Central Okanagan Real Estate Sales for November 2011













Oct -11






Sept -11






Aug -11






Nov 10






*Figures are as at close of business 3oth November 2011, and may be subject to slight change.

As you can see from the November sales figures, numbers have remained quite reasonable, given that things do traditionally slow down during the winter months, and much better than this time last year.

And Finally....

For those of you I may not see or speak to over the next few weeks, I would like to take this opportunity of to wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year!

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Cell 250 864 1707