BCREA Housing Market Update Q1 BC Housing Forecast Update (Feb 2012)

Hi All,

The BC Real Estate Association has now published their latest report on the BC Real Estate Market and also gives their views on the latest Forecasts for 2012 & 2013.



Kind Regards
Trish Cenci
Tel 250 864 1707
Email trishcenci@shaw.ca

BCREA Reports Home Sales Rise Outside Lower Mainland

Hi All,

Thought you would like to see that there is better news from BCREA today on housing sales for January 2012.

Vancouver, BC – February 15, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC dipped 7.6 per cent to $2.1 billion in January compared to the same month last year. A total of 3,976 homes traded hands on the MLS® over the same period, down 3.9 per cent. The average MLS® residential price was 3.8 per cent lower at $527,219 compared to January 2011.

“Increased market activity outside the Lower Mainland in January was offset by fewer sales in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. MLS® Residential sales rose 7 per cent to 1,620 units outside the Lower Mainland, while declining 10 per cent to 2,356 units in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

“While provincial sales activity was down in January from year ago levels, consumer demand has posted modest improvement since last fall, driven by low mortgage interest rates and gradually improving economic conditions,” added Muir.

Kind Regards 

Trish Cenci 

Tel 250 864 1707 

Email trishcenci@shaw.ca

Better News for Kelowna Real Estate in 2012 Q1 Housing Market Forecast from BCREA

Hi All,

To keep you up to date with the  latest BC Real Estate Forecast I have attached BCREA's report issued today.

It offers better news for Real Estate in the Central Okanagan, with higher sales and a modest increase in average MLS ® Price forecast for the next 2 years.

Average Performance for Housing Market in 2012
BCREA 2012 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – January 27, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

“Modest economic growth at home and abroad is expected to limit growth in consumer demand both this year and in 2013,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 2.1 per cent from 76,817 units in 2011 to 78,400 units this year, increasing a further 2.7 per cent to 80,500 units in 2013. The 15-year average is 79,000 unit sales. A record 106,310 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.  

"While European sovereign debt concerns and a sluggish US economy will continue to impact consumer confidence, strong demand in the bond market is expected to keep mortgage interest rates at or near record lows for most of 2012,” added Muir.

Home prices in most BC markets are forecast to experience little change over the next 24 months as the supply of homes for sale more closely matches consumer demand. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to edge down 2.2 per cent to $548,500 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2013, albeit increasing 0.8 per cent to $553,000.

To Read the full report please view http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economics-forecasts-and-presentations/housingforecast_.pdf

Kind Regards
Trish Cenci
Tel 250 864 1707
Email trishcenci@shaw.ca

Where did the Kelowna Real Estate Buyers come from in December 2011?

Hi All,

The results of OMREB's December 2011 Buyers Survey are in.  

A total of 103 respondents participated in this survey – representing 48.6% of the 212 OMREB sales representatives who acted as Buyers Agents and 38.7% of the 266 deals closed on behalf of Buyers in December. 

DECEMBER 2011 SURVEY SUMMARY

Property Type:23.8% of purchases were by Move-Up Buyers
21.8% buying Revenue/Investment Property
19.8% by First Time Buyers
8.9% moving from Single Family Home to Strata Unit
7.9% Recreation Property Buyers
5.0% moving from Strata property to Single Family Home
3.0% moving into Retirement Home/Seniors Community

It is interesting to note that the number of revenue and investment property purchases improved significantly and rose to second on the list for December (from fourth) – pushing first-time buyers down to third place.   

Reported purchases of recreation properties saw a noticeable improvement as well.

Moving From:
68.9% from Within OMREB Board Area
12.6% from Alberta
8.6% from Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island
2.9% from Other Areas in BC
2.9% from Saskatchewan/Manitoba
2.9% from Outside Canada
1.0% from NWT/Yukon (third month reported)
0% from Eastern Canada/Maritimes

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Email trishcenci@shaw.ca

BC Home Sales Increase Last Year reports BCREA

Hi All,

BCREA announced their latest report on BC Real Estate today.

Whilst the news was good for the province as a whole figures were slightly disappointing for the Okanagan Mainline area.

Vancouver, BC – January 13, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA)
reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC
climbed 14.3 per cent to $43.1 billion in 2011. A total of 76,817 homes were sold in BC in 2011,
up 2.9 per cent from 2010. The average annual MLS® residential price climbed 11.1 per cent to
$561,026 over the same period.

“Low mortgage interest rates and gradually
improving economic conditions contributed to a
moderate increase in consumer demand last year,”
said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.
“BC home sales came in about on par with their 15-
year average, but fell well below their ten-year
average of over 88,000 units.”

Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and the North
experienced the largest percentage increase in unit
sales last year, while consumer demand edged
lower in Victoria and on Vancouver Island.
BC residential unit sales in December dipped 1.7 per cent to 4,186 units, while the average
MLS® residential price was 2.8 per cent lower than in December 2010.

To read the remaining details please go to
http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/news-2012/2011-12.pdf


Kind Regards
Trish Cenci
Tel 250 864 1707
Email trishcenci@shaw.ca

Excellent Advice for the Long Term Real Estate Investor in 2012

Hi All,


I was reading Don R Campbell's latest blog post this morning and felt that I had to share it with you.


It offers really excellent advice to the Canadian real estate investor who is looking for a reasoned approach to making long term real estate investment decisions.

2012: The Year Of Confusion, Concern and Consternation – The Perfect Environment For A Sophisticated Investor
2012 is going to be a year of confusing economic signals, mixed real estate messages and fearful investors. In other words: the perfect environment for the sophisticated long-term real estate investor.

Over the last 20 years, my research team and I have been analyzing the Canadian real estate markets from a unique point of view – we don’t look at the real estate numbers. This approach has allowed us and the sophisticated investors who understand this approach to move forward when real estate signals all seem to be showing “stop” – and stop when signals all seem to be green.

To read more please go to the attached link.

http://www.donrcampbell.com/2012-the-year-of-confusion-concern-and-consternation-the-perfect-environment-for-a-sophisticated-investor

I hope you find this helpful!

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

EMail trishcenci@shaw.ca

Kelowna Real Estate - Don’t read too much into your Property Assessment value.

Hi All,

It's that time again when we receive our BC Property Assessments through the post.

For many people, particularly those who own property in Kelowna, as a second home, you will be anxiously looking at this report as an indication of the value of your property.

Before you get too concerned, it is important to know that there are many factors that affect your property value which will not be taken into account in making the Assessment.

This is particularly true if you have done extensive renovations, for example.

While Assessments in some areas of the City are fairly accurate, there are a number of areas where properties are either well undervalued or overvalued.

My suggestion is, that if you are really wanting to get some idea of the value of your property, give either myself or your own Real Estate Agent a call, as we are much closer to the latest market information.

For more details of the recent Assessments you may like to read the report in the CHBC News Article - see the link below.

http://www.chbcnews.ca/okanagan+real+estate+values+take+a+hit/6442553237/story.html

Kind Regards
Trish Cenci
Tel 250 864 1707
EMail trishcenci@shaw.ca

Kelowna Real Estate Update January 2012

Hi All,

First and foremost may I take this opportunity to wish everyone a Happy New Year!

If you were reading the news and following my blog throughout last year you will know that Kelowna Real Estate went through another tough year.

Sales numbers in 2011 were up on 2010, but it remained a Buyers Market, as can be seen in the chart below showing the Months of Inventory available.

The good news for Sellers is that these numbers are falling, and providing we doesn't see a big increase in new inventory during the spring, we should see things moving closer to a more balanced market.

Other points to note are that the number of days to sell a property in 2011 compared to 2010 did vary according to category -:

                                            2011          2010

Single Family                      90                80

Condos                                115              118

Townhomes                       108              100

Lots                                     189              236

There was a modest increase in the number of days to sell Single Family and Town Homes while the was a fall in time to sell Condos and a big improvement for Lots.

Central Okanagan Sales Numbers December 2011

Date	Total	S/Fm	Strata	Lots	Manuf
Dec-11*	171	110	52	6	3
Nov -11	255	145	89	9	12
Oct -11	265	147	87	12	19
Sep -11	289	158	105	11	15
Dec 10	157	93	46	10	8

*Figures are as at close of business 31st December 2011, and may be subject to slight change.

As you can see from the table above, sales were well down in December compared to November, but up on the previous year. This is quite normal for the Central Okanagan.

My Kelowna Real Estate Forecast for 2012

For those of you who may have missed my Real Estate Forecast for 2012, I have attached a link to my article  http://www.trishcenci.blogspot.com/2011/12/kelowna-real-estate-forecast-for-2012.html

Please Help me with you Feedback!

I know that everyone has busy schedules , but I do want to ensure that I keep my blog posts relevant and informative.

Please would you just take a couple of minutes to e.mail me with you comments on my blog, whether it is just to say that you find it helpful, or whether there is something else you would like to see included? My e.mail address is trishcenci@shaw.ca

Thank you in advance, as this will be really helpful!

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Kelowna Real Estate - OMREB Buyers Survey Results - December 2011

The results of OMREB's November 2011 Buyers Survey are now posted! A total of 139 respondents participated in this survey – representing 43.4% of the 297 OMREB sales representatives who acted as Buyers Agents and 35.2% of the 395 deals closed on behalf of Buyers in November.

NOVEMBER SURVEY SUMMARY

Property Type:

22.1% of purchases were by Move-Up Buyers
22.1% by First Time Buyers
13.2% moving from Single Family Home to Strata Unit
6.6% buying Revenue/Investment Property
5.1% moving from Strata property to Single Family Home
3.7% moving into Retirement Home/Seniors Community
3.7% Recreation Property Buyers

Moving From:

58.7% from Within OMREB Board Area
4.3% from Other Areas in BC
14.5% from Alberta
12.3% from Lower Mainland/Vancouver Island
4.3% from Other Areas in BC
3.6% from Saskatchewan/Manitoba
3.6% from Outside Canada
2.2% from Eastern Canada/Maritimes
0.7% from NWT/Yukon (second month reported)

First Time Buyers and Move- Up Buyers continue to be the main players in the market, as they are still taking advantage of lower prices and lower interest rates.

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

Report on BC Real Estate Sales from BCREA December 2011

Dear All,

I was reading the latest Real Estate Report from the BC Real Estate Association today, and thought you would like to see the latest update.

Things are really close to where they were at this time last year.

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Cell 250 864 1707

Vancouver, BC – December 14, 2011.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential unit sales in the province remained relatively unchanged in November compared to the same month last year. A total of 5,640 units were sold last month compared to 5,647 units in November 2010. The average MLS® residential price was up 1.1 per cent to $529,140 in November compared to the same month last year.

"BC home sales continued to gain ground in November,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “After waning during the first half of the year, consumer demand has steadily increased since the summer months, bringing home sales within seven units of the November 2010 level."

"Low mortgage interest rates remain a key driver in the housing market, helping to maintain affordability and purchasing power,” added Muir.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 15.5 per cent to $41 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales increased 3.2 per cent to 72,632 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 11.9 per cent to $563,991 over the same period.

Kelowna Real Estate Update December 2011

Hi All,

I can't believe it is December already!

If we look back on the year, it has been a tough year for many parts of the Kelowna Real Estate Market. In reviewing the residential real estate sales, there have been some great deals for Buyers.

The number one question to Real Estate Agents continues to be  'How is the Market' and 'What do you think is going to happen to home prices in Kelowna'?

In my 'quest' to find the answer, I have been looking to a number of different sources, such as CMHC, Stats Canada and the BC Real Estate Association.

Only last week I attended a talk by Paul Farbi, Market Analyst for CMHC, about the Real Estate Market in Kelowna.

As part of his presentation, he talked about the reasons why the investment and second home market has been declining - putting it down to slower economic growth which cooled demand, investors pulling back due to uncertainty in the markets and softening prices, financing became harder and stronger competition from cheaper homes in the U.S.

What is the immediate future for Kelowna Real Estate?

Regionally, we are seeing job numbers beginning to rebound, and economic growth is beginning to recover. We have a number of positives for this area in particular - the growth in UBCO, the expansion projects at Kelowna International Airport and Kelowna General Hospital, Residential Construction is now stronger and Best Buy have just opened their new 34,000 square foot store in Orchard Park Mall.

The Rental Market has also been hit over the last couple of years with vacancy rates, in 2011, being around the 6% mark, whereas it was 3.7% in the previous year. The good news is that rents are now beginning to stabilise, and hopefully this area of the market will continue its recovery.

All in all, the economic and employment growth tend to support housing demand for 2012, so I do agree with the view that prices will remain stable over the coming months with a modest increase later in 2012, as inventory continues to be absorbed.

Central Okanagan Real Estate Sales for November 2011

Date	Total	S/Fm	Strata	Lots	Manuf
Nov-11*	255	145	89	9	12
Oct -11	265	147	87	12	19
Sept -11	289	158	105	11	15
Aug -11	276	145	103	17	11
Nov 10	199	117	68	7	7

*Figures are as at close of business 3oth November 2011, and may be subject to slight change.

As you can see from the November sales figures, numbers have remained quite reasonable, given that things do traditionally slow down during the winter months, and much better than this time last year.


And Finally....


For those of you I may not see or speak to over the next few weeks, I would like to take this opportunity of to wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year!

Kind Regards


Trish Cenci


Cell 250 864 1707